With respect to music/film/etc, there will always be stars and blockbusters. It’s just the nature of society to seek and find the next big thing, then put it on a pedestal for all to admire, discuss, criticize, worship, and tear down. It’s not just mass media either. How many times have you read some unknown blog talking about some unknown band that’s going to be absolutely *huge*? People want to be the first to spot a rising star.

Perhaps the long tail will cannibalize from the middle of the graph more than the high end. Second-tier and second-rate bands that could formerly count on their labels to find them an audience on radio & MTV now compete with bands promoted by true fans on YouTube, etc.

And it still costs a fortune to make & distribute your average feature film, where I don’t see blockbuster economics changing anytime soon. While bands can use the web to sidestep the old media machine, ambitious filmmakers mainly use the web to break into the machine,

to your question: i’d add the emergence of DAPs (ipods) and MP3s to the equation as well.

The emergence of the ipod and mp3 creates more opportunities to listen to music (work, play, commuting). and online music stores make buying it much easier.

but mp3s also seem to have shifted focus back toward the single. now that music’s been decoupled from packaging, you only buy what you really want. plus, napster was usually traded song by song.

piracy would also seem to contribute to the “casual” fan. most music that’s pirated wouldn’t be purchased otherwise, so that’s got to contribute.

plus, there’s a whole “market” of trading musical tastes now. playlists, ringtones, myspace pages, etc. so some of your focus on “the music” has been transferred to sharing “your taste” in music.

then there’s the whole idea of what it means to be a “fan”. :) if you really believe in the power of the long tail, then you’re gonna have to accept all the noobs who show up at a concert because of some recent news or meme that’s been going around.

in a way, maybe the trade-off for increased choice and a more efficient music market is that we’re all now “casual” fans (or at least moreso than before).

i don’t know that i would say that mass media is dead — there are still occasions when we all yearn for a communal experience. being part of the crowd is an important part of growing up for many teens. but it certainly isn’t your only option anymore, or even your first choice.