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I Had Been Wondering ….

I had been wondering if the significant increase in media creators and distribution channels was meaning that the supply of entertainment was outstripping demand. I was wondering, for example, if the presence of more bands being able to be heard through more mediums means that there were fewer fans to enjoy any given band.

A recent report by the very focused Spencer Wang of Bears Stearns offers very conclusive data to what is feeling very much common sense right now. He found that over the years the increase of television options and distribution (such as cable, satellite, internet, etc.) led to a steady increase in the overall amount of watched programming. However, during that same period, that the existing audience of each particular outlet shrank just as consistently.

If this translates to other forms of mass entertainment, then for my question about music bands, the more bands there are the larger the worldwide audience is, but, on average, the smaller sized audience each will have.

This also confirms the expectation that more and more entertainers can find an audience, yet the chances of an epic blockbuster decrease every day.

This also means that entertainment providers will have fewer and fewer casual fans, but more dedicated fans.

This also means that mass media is dying waning and independent media is growing waxing.

But all this already feels like common sense.

I still don’t know what the role of expanding population has in this. Are there simply more people seeking entertainment or does the increased options means even more people have something that compels them?

2 Responses to “I Had Been Wondering ….” »»

  1. tim
    Comment by tim | 11/29/06 at 5:09 pm

    i think it’s a very complicated equation. i always like to put this kind of thing in the context of a media wallet or diet, the idea being that any one person only has so much time and money to spend on entertainment media (no matter the form) in a given time period. The more options we have, the smaller each slice of our diet/wallet gets. Seems simple, but many writers/analysts forget it.

    to your question: i’d add the emergence of DAPs (ipods) and MP3s to the equation as well.

    The emergence of the ipod and mp3 creates more opportunities to listen to music (work, play, commuting). and online music stores make buying it much easier.

    but mp3s also seem to have shifted focus back toward the single. now that music’s been decoupled from packaging, you only buy what you really want. plus, napster was usually traded song by song.

    piracy would also seem to contribute to the “casual” fan. most music that’s pirated wouldn’t be purchased otherwise, so that’s got to contribute.

    plus, there’s a whole “market” of trading musical tastes now. playlists, ringtones, myspace pages, etc. so some of your focus on “the music” has been transferred to sharing “your taste” in music.

    then there’s the whole idea of what it means to be a “fan”. :) if you really believe in the power of the long tail, then you’re gonna have to accept all the noobs who show up at a concert because of some recent news or meme that’s been going around.

    in a way, maybe the trade-off for increased choice and a more efficient music market is that we’re all now “casual” fans (or at least moreso than before).

    i don’t know that i would say that mass media is dead — there are still occasions when we all yearn for a communal experience. being part of the crowd is an important part of growing up for many teens. but it certainly isn’t your only option anymore, or even your first choice.

  2. JB
    Comment by JB | 12/26/06 at 2:54 pm

    I think the same phenomenon is/was in play with respect to other markets, such as advertising.

    With respect to music/film/etc, there will always be stars and blockbusters. It’s just the nature of society to seek and find the next big thing, then put it on a pedestal for all to admire, discuss, criticize, worship, and tear down. It’s not just mass media either. How many times have you read some unknown blog talking about some unknown band that’s going to be absolutely *huge*? People want to be the first to spot a rising star.

    Perhaps the long tail will cannibalize from the middle of the graph more than the high end. Second-tier and second-rate bands that could formerly count on their labels to find them an audience on radio & MTV now compete with bands promoted by true fans on YouTube, etc.

    And it still costs a fortune to make & distribute your average feature film, where I don’t see blockbuster economics changing anytime soon. While bands can use the web to sidestep the old media machine, ambitious filmmakers mainly use the web to break into the machine,

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