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Technical Divergence is the New Technical Convergence

Technological convergence is an event that many chief technologists, financiers and equipment makers strive to bring about. They fantasize that they will release the killer handheld or software or website that will blend everything everyone wants into to one supreme offering . Imagine, the PDA that is also a full laptop, music player, phone is one sought after example, or a website that meets the needs of an entire nation.

While they all may dream this - because it means they’ll have hit the biggest financial jackpot or gain them a front page obituary - they are going to miss out on all the fun. Technology is not going to bring out single, dominant, optimal solutions anytime soon. Instead technology will be used to make astounding amounts of slightly divergent variants, each customized for a certain type of use/user. Biz guys will want email they can talk responses to. Gamers will want blazing processors. Audiophiles will want symphonic sound. Fashonistas will want unique encasements.

Same goes for social networking sites. I hear Venture Capitalists state they simply can’t imagine anyone making a site to compete with the 50,000,000 member MySpace communty. What they mean is they won’t risk their money, but many will not need their money. In the next 24 months there will be a dozen ‘fringe’ sites that start eating into MySpace popularity. Some will be made in other countries, some will be made by web-addicts, other will be spin-offs of other ideas. Popular new-comers will be only slightly different, but enough they they speak more clearly to a community. One will have cr8zy sYNtaX and txty talk, another will have inline gaming. One will be just for females, another will be sports 24-7. Some will be cellphone based, others will be limited to subnetworks. These are all guess by I could go on and on with pointing out underserved communities and underexplored communication platforms.

There simply will be no end. Dominence and convergence are not coming to a theatre near us. Divergence and multiplicity are what the internet age is going to continue to be all about.

5 Responses to “Technical Divergence is the New Technical Convergence” »»

  1. tim
    Comment by tim | 03/09/06 at 11:47 pm

    you hit it. convergence has always been about increased complexity, not simplicity. it’s about more applications, more use cases, more interfaces, more devices. and that’s a good thing. we want to be able to do more, but we need a little help managing it all.

    the problem is that most companies still believe that they can find some magic “simple” bullet and solve all our problems with one giant brushed steel-looking button. they force their “one way” of doing things down our throats, and unless you happen to be Apple, most people just gag and turn away.

    i think that’s what’s so encouraging about all the API development. It’s basically saying, there’s complexity in our service, we’ve tried to address it, but hey, why don’t you give it a shot, too? API’s aren’t just free R&D for new app ideas, it’s also bespoke programming that addresses the needs of smaller niches in your audience, some of which you may not have even known were there. (which is pretty much what you just said.)

    i’d really like to see the CE manufacturers get in on this. Sony? I’m talking to you. Cordless phone interfaces suck. Remotes suck. Why can’t i just plug everything into my PC and tweak, skin and customize it?

  2. Comment by Scott Rafer | 03/11/06 at 12:03 pm

    Here, here. It’s just about the only way Sony could make real dent in Apple’s market share.

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