Oh Fark! Is That What I Think It Is?
Watch out rational development! Greed and irrational exuberance are officially back in the web game.
The writing is on the walls. The question is not if the web-tech industry is in another state of irrational exubberance, but what does it mean that we are. Last weeks estimated $400M in aqcuistions, many new VC funding announcements, and all the hoopla around Web2.0 Conference solidified that rational growth is under threat. I’m not an economist so I can’t say for sure, but as a passionate webdork I see that the internet landscape is abloom with wonderful and powerful net-based apps built with care and commitment. The last 4 years have produced web companies that are akin to the craftsmen architecture period. But it’s on the shoulders of just this kind of passionate work that the money-hungry crowd loves to climb in on top of and unknowingly suck the life out of their potential meal ticket.
I have no doubt our grace period of rational development is over and now among other things, greed, over-hype and outsider influences will be walking amongst us again. We’ll need to be strong against the greedles as they can sap the sincerity and integrity out of any well-minded industry. Greed makes everything for us worse by drawing in entities that care more about money as quickly as possible than anything else. Greed inflates real values unrealistically and making others feel inadequately compensated, even if they are already earning more than comparable peers across the country. Over-hype’s danger is that it over-commits the expectations which leads to actual offerings appearing lackluster in comparision to their vapidware.
But whatever is occurring this time there are some differences that give me hope that San Francisco won’t get as bad as the Money Bay era. Jackson chanelling Jay pointed out that blogs means web developers are no longer holed up with just their development teams and a mailing list or three. Today’s cross-pollinating blogging, wiki, comments and participation mind-set allows for a much more efficient distributution of knowledge that occurs in real-time but is also permanently archived provding long tail goodness. Another difference I foresee is the stronger presense of second-generation leaders with documented commitments to being responsible business leaders. Many of these leaders felt crowded out by the carpet baggers the last time and are not going to give up their high-ground without a very educated fight. Moreover those that are behaving badly will deal with the wrath of the blogger backlash which can take many an imposing figure down if done in full force. Finally, my favorite new development is that it is now easier and cheaper for anyone to get started and run a very powerful web entity. No longer are VC connections a must, no longer is family money or having the guts to max out 5 credit cards required. No longer is being first-to-market a lock. The leveled playing field means that at any point almost anyone entity can disrupt a high profile web company by doing something cheaper better and faster.
But in the meantime, watch your minds. The next time you hear some ass-hat in a launch party mention how many shares they have or the next time a coworker leaves for a better salary at some flashy start-up it’ll be sooner than you think. But just let them go. Greed is easier to contract than posion oak and ten times as insidious once it’s under your skin.
